KG and the mid-range jump shot

In addition to my work here, I've begun contributing to Celtics 17, a Celtics blog on the MVN network of blogs. This way I can keep my homer-ism there, while trying to continue to be objective here.

My first post is up at Celtics 17 now, discussing the shift to more jumpers for Kevin Garnett, and the effect on his game as a whole. An excerpt is below:

I remember when KG came to the Celtics, I was initially confused with his style of play. The Garnett I saw on ESPN and in all the highlights was at the rim constantly throwing it down, and sometimes featured a baseline fall-away when teams over-committed to defending the rim. However, suddenly watching him season-long, I was surprised how much he relied on the 15-18ft jumper for his production.

So I decided to take a look at the numbers, to see if he'd always played this way and I'd been blinded by small sample size, or if KG's play had really changed that dramatically with his appearance in Boston, using the current and prior seasons compared to the 2004-05 KG.

The results, in a way, showed both my options were in a way right.

More at [Celtics 17]

Live by the three, die by the three, starring the Orlando Magic

Outside of the crazy D'Antoni-ball being played in Madison Square Garden right now, nobody in the league shoots more deep shots than the Orlando Magic. They're quite good at it too, shooting over 40% for the year, compared to a league average of just over 36%, and use it to play a fantastic inside-outside game with the beast that is Dwight Howard under the basket drawing defenders.

Even the starting "Power Forward" for the Magic is shooting over 42%, so combined with some other pesky shooters and a defense holding opponents to the third lowest FG% in the league Orlando now sits far atop their division and in discussion for a title run.

While the three has been the Magic's friend most of the season, it has proven to also be their enemy when things go sour.

The Magic as a team shoot over 33% of their shots from behind the arc, compared to a league average of 22%, and (D'Antoni-ball excluded) 6% higher than anyone else in the league. Because of this, a 5-6% variation in 3P% has a greater effect on total points than most teams.

So when the shots aren't falling, things get bad. Teams can start to collapse harder onto Howard without fear of paying for it from deep. Additionally, the shooting culture of Orlando leads to cold shooters continuing to shoot anyway, which can't help.

Tonight, for example, the Magic lost 90-80 at home to the Boston Celtics, in a match-up of two of the three best teams in the East. Seven weeks ago, the Magic also lost to the Celtics, in Boston, by a 107-88 margin. The common factor? Poor shooting behind the arc.

In the first match-up, Orlando shot 5/26 (19.2%) from deep, leading to a 19pt margin of defeat despite winning the rebounding battle and breaking even in turnovers, the two regularly telling factors in swinging a game.

Tonight, the Magic shot 7-22 (31.8%) from deep, not awful but still almost 9% below their average for the year. The ten point loss, then, stems also from being outdone slightly in turnovers and rebounds, without a dominant deep ball to bail them out.

A good three point shooting team can be as dangerous as anybody, making leads disappear in just moments. The Magic have the ability to be that team, as they've shown, and have the ability to be far from it, as they've also shown.

The question then is this: Can the Magic be hot from deep four out of seven games in a series come playoff time? Can they adjust to an off night without relying on a titanic performance from Dwight Howard?

Regardless, it's fun to watch. Let's hope they don't change a thing.

Doc Rivers rears his ugly head once again

The Celtics skid now stands at four losses out of six games. Granted, five of these were road games, four of which on a west coast swing, so a grain of salt is necessary, but we can still take this as a sign of future problems. I know where I'm starting to look: Doc Rivers.

Now, I'm usually in favor of not giving a coach too much credit for success or blame for failure, and I'm not saying Rivers has caused this recent slide, but he's not necessarily helping it either, especially when it comes to bench management.

The Celtics bench, as heavily reported, has been very sub-par this year after losing James Posey, PJ Brown, and Sam Cassell (sort of) from last year's title squad. To quantify this, I took a look at the last ten games played, which included the six games from this "skid", three home blowouts, and the tight Celts-Hawks game.

In these games, the Boston Bench played 77 minutes per game (49 low, 105 high) compared to opponents' 81 minutes per game (41 low, 127 high). Opposing benches outscored the Celtics 33.2 to 28.5 in this span.

Applying the bench point-per-minute numbers to a full quarter (12 minutes) for five players (broadly assuming starters play 3/4 of the game), the failure of the bench becomes incredibly telling. One of the ten games was to the Celtics advantage (the blowout @Sac), while the three biggest deficits came in losses: -17.1 tonight @NYK, -12.0 @Port, and -6.6 @Lakers.

Despite using less bench minutes, Doc has still reverted back to playing all twelve players regardless of situation, as noted in prior seasons by a certain overzealous fan. Seemingly every time the Celts build up a lead, the bench gives it right back when the starters rest.

Brian Scalabrine, a man with no discernible skills other than being the only white guy on a team in a racially challenged city, continues to average ten minutes per game. Listed as a power forward, Scal has shot under 39% for his career, which would be bad for a guard. He ranked dead last in Hollinger's PER rating for PF's last year, and is sitting pretty at 6.17PER for the year right now.

It could be said that Rivers is coaching the team for the playoffs, not the regular season, and resting his stars while he can, knowing full well they'll make the playoffs. It's also tough to form a second unit or rotation when Eddie House, a player built to run and rain threes off-ball, is handling the ball at point.

But this still doesn't excuse the lack of cohesion on this bench, whether it's Scalabrine tossing up aimless threes, Tony Allen dropping his head down and charging toward the basket without recourse, or Glen Davis dropping passes in the post. This should be a focus in practice, and Rivers needs to make it happen before Boston complacently slips to the 3rd seed in the East, or worse.

The Disappearance of KG's Offensive Ferocity

A third of the way through the NBA season, the heralded Celtics’ weaknesses are beginning to show through. In losing three of four on a west coast trip, many think the sky is falling for this team. It is not. Most of the analysts are quick to point to the turnovers (Most turnovers per game in the NBA), which is very valid. Between errant passes and offensive fouls, the Celts are turning the ball over at an alarming rate, and their decent assist numbers still leave them in the bottom of the league in Assist-to-Turnover ratio.

That said, I’d like to point out another issue for the team: Kevin Garnett.

Defensively and from a leadership perspective, KG is still KG, yelling, pounding the floor, rotating hard and fast on defense. On offense, on the other hand, he’s playing less of a PF-style game than Lamar Odom these days.

While many commend his willingness to defer to teammates in the offense, let Rondo run the show, and knock down mid-range shots, I disagree. KG is a 6-11, 250lb freak of nature, and should play as such on offense. He should be able to generate half his point in the post, easily, especially against some of the lesser big men in the league these days.

In reality, KG seems content to, aside from the occasional alley-oop, take more and more mid-range and even long-range jumpshots, which may be the way to go with Shaq or Joel Pryzbilla defending, but otherwise is counterproductive. Some games this method works out very well, as KG hits a high percentage of jumpers (November 12th vs. Atlanta), but the law of averages makes the other games painful.

Let's look at the shot charts (CBS Sportsline) for KG for the four game west coast trip:

Top: Lakers (Left), Warriors (Right)


Bottom: Kings (Left), Blazers (Right)

The Lakers game is a great example of the deceiving deep KG game. He's great from midrange, pulling Andrew Bynum or Pau Gasol out of the lane and making them pay for leaving him open. Kobe simply wouldn't let the Celts win this game, however. The Kings game is another example of good mid-range shots, and the Celts own big here.

Look at the number of outside shots taken by KG against the Warriors, the smallest team in the league, and will little success, because a small quick team can be quick enough to challenge an outside shot. By the time the Celts reached Portland, they realized KG in the post was vital to the offense, but ran into Greg Oden and Pryzbilla, which ended poorly with fadeaway jumpers.

In general, a pattern of outside shooting that I'll hope the Blazers game was a sign the team is getting away from.

Here's a rundown of KG shot selection for the four game trip, plus five close or OT games from the past month or so:

• @LA (L): 3/3 Dunks, 1/1 Layups, 7/10 Jumpers
• @GS (L): 1/1 Dunks, 1/1 Layups, 3/12 Jumpers
• @SAC (W): 1/1 Dunks, 3/3 Layups, 7/8 Jumpers
• @POR (L): 1/2 Dunks, 0 Layups, 6/14 Jumpers
• @ATL (W, Dec 17): 1/1 Dunks, 1/3 Layups, 5/11 Jumpers
• @IND (W, Dec 7): 1/1 Dunks, 0 Layups, 5/10 Jumpers
• @CHA (W, Nov 29): 0 Dunks, 1/1 Layups, 3/11 Jumpers
• @MIL (W, Nov 15): 1/1 Dunks, 0 Layups, 5/14 Jumpers
• vs. ATL (W, Nov 12): 1/1 Dunks, 1/4 Layups, 8/11 Jumpers

In total attempts: 11 Dunks, 13 Layups, 101 Jumpers. For a Power Forward that's known as a beast, that's sad.

This lack of aggression on offense has also led to a severe drop in free throws, also known as free points. In the period from the 2000-2001 season through 2006-2007 season (with MINN) KG shot an average of 6.10 FTA/G, shooting 79.5% from the line. Last year with the Celts, this dropped to 4.73 FTA/G, shooting 80.0% from the line. Currently, KG is at a clip of 2.69 FTA/G, less than half his prior average, shooting 83.7%.

This lack of free throws by Garnett not only means more difficult points for the Celtics, but means that opposing big men aren't racking up as many fouls. As opposing starting bigs get to play more minutes, they help disrupt the slashing of Rondo, the rebounding of Perkins, and so on.

As much as I love seeing KG beat his chest, I'd love more to see him doing it after an And-1 foul than yet another 15ft jumper. Maybe that will get this team back on track.